As we approach the release of Marvel Studios' The Fantastic Four: First Steps on July 25, 2025, the film is generating significant buzz, with early box office projections and a surprising casting shakeup dominating discussions. This note dives deep into the numbers, the narrative shifts, and what it all means for Marvel's future, written with the tone of a jaded, 40-something film enthusiast who's seen it all but still can't help but care.
The Numbers Game: Box Office Projections and Presales
Let's start with the big picture: money talks, and First Steps is speaking loudly. Early projections peg the film's domestic opening at $100M–$110M, according to sources like Deadline and Box Office Pro, with some estimates stretching higher to $125M–$155M, as seen in recent tracking from IMDb and Superhero Hype. To put this in context, it's outpacing other 2025 MCU entries like Thunderbolts ($74.3M) and Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8M), which is no small feat given the talk of superhero fatigue. However, it's trailing behind Superman, projected at $115M–$130M, suggesting Marvel's still playing catch-up to DC's recent momentum.
Presales are at $13M as of Monday, July 14, 2025, which is solid but not earth-shattering. The film's embargo on reviews until late Monday, July 21, 2025, adds a layer of uncertainty. That's a risky move—positive reviews could boost the opening, but negative ones, dropping just days before the July 25 release, could tank it. It's like Marvel's playing chicken with the critics, and I'm not sure who's going to blink first.
Here's a breakdown of the projections for clarity:
| Movie | Projected Opening (Domestic) | Presales | Comparison to Other Movies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fantastic Four: First Steps | $100M–$110M (some $125M–$155M) | $13M | Ahead of Thunderbolts ($74.3M), Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8M), 20% behind Superman ($115M–$130M) |
The real story here isn't just whether Marvel is “back,” but how quickly audiences are willing to re-embrace legacy characters like the Fantastic Four. With First Steps set to overperform Superman internationally, according to the source material, it seems like there's still an appetite for these stories, despite the fatigue narrative.
The Malkovich Mystery: A Cut Too Far?
Now, let's get to the drama: John Malkovich, legendary actor and scene-stealer extraordinaire, has been cut from the final version of First Steps. Confirmed by director Matt Shakman in interviews with Variety and TheWrap, Malkovich was set to play Ivan Kragoff/The Red Ghost, appearing in a sequence at the beginning of the film that would have shown the Fantastic Four's early battles, including a showdown with his Super-Apes. Shakman called it “heartbreaking” to cut, explaining that the film needed to focus on its core ensemble—Reed Richards, Sue Storm, Johnny Storm, and Ben Grimm—while introducing a new universe with characters like H.E.R.B.I.E., Silver Surfer, and Galactus.
But let's be real: has a film ever been worse for having John Malkovich in it? I can't think of one. Even when the movie falls apart around him, he always brings something unexpected, like a wild card in a deck of predictable superhero tropes. Cutting him feels like a safe play, and safe plays don't exactly scream “cinematic revolution.” Fans were probably looking forward to seeing him chew scenery as Red Ghost, and now they're left with a teaser trailer glimpse and nothing more. It's a bold move, but is it the right one? I'm not so sure.
The film's runtime, at a lean 115 minutes, suggests Marvel's trying to avoid the bloat that's plagued recent entries like Eternals. That's a good thing, right? Shorter runtimes can keep the pace tight, but I can't help wondering if this is overcorrecting. Did they sacrifice depth to fit everything in? Malkovich's scenes might have added that extra layer of intrigue, and now we'll never know.
Release Timing and Critical Stakes
First Steps hits theaters on July 25, 2025, with no festival or event dates mentioned in the source material. The late review embargo, set for July 21, 2025, is a timing move that could go either way. It's a gamble—positive first reactions could propel the film to that higher end of the projection range, but if critics pan it, the buzz could fizzle fast. Given the film's already notched $13M in presales, it's got a head start, but the real test will be opening weekend. Whether it's the beginning of a new Marvel era or just another chapter in the same old book will likely depend on what happens then.
Personal Take: A Relatable Skeptic's View
Look, I remember loving this stuff in the ‘90s. Now? It feels like homework sometimes. Marvel's been walking a fine line between tightening up their stories and stripping them of soul, and cutting Malkovich feels like a step toward the latter. But then again, the box office numbers suggest there's still an audience for this, especially with legacy characters. I'll be there on opening weekend, popcorn in hand, ready to see if this leaner, meaner Marvel can still deliver. And hey, if nothing else, at least we won't have to sit through three hours of it.
So, here we are, on the cusp of The Fantastic Four: First Steps. Will it be the triumphant return Marvel needs, or just another chapter in the same old book? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure: I'll be watching, grumbling, and probably ordering pizza halfway through. And that's the thing—or not. I don't know anymore.
