Cannes has spoken, and Neon is once again the big winner, scooping up Palme d'Or darling It Was Just An Accident and other festival favorites. But as the dust settles, the question on everyone's mind is: will these films translate into Oscar gold? Like a Netflix algorithm gone rogue, Hollywood's obsession with predicting Oscar winners has turned Cannes into a high-stakes betting game—but this year's lineup feels less like a sure bet and more like a game of cinematic roulette.
Historically, Cannes has been a reliable launchpad for Oscar contenders, with recent Palme d'Or winners like Anora (IndieWire) and Parasite going on to win Best Picture. But this year's lineup presents a more complex picture. It Was Just An Accident, directed by Jafar Panahi, may face hurdles in the International Film category if Iran doesn't submit it, forcing Neon to strategize differently—much like they did with Anatomy of a Fall last year, which was snubbed by France but still landed five Oscar nominations (Deadline). The film's accessibility and Panahi's compelling backstory (a director imprisoned twice by his own government) could make it a strong contender in Best Picture, Director, or Screenplay categories, but its path is far from clear-cut.
Neon's haul doesn't stop there. They also acquired The Secret Agent, which won Best Actor for Wagner Moura and Best Director for Kleber Mendonça Filho, and Sentimental Value, which took home the Grand Prize (second place). Sentimental Value, a Norwegian family drama from Joaquim Trier (director of The Worst Person in the World), earned an absurd 19-minute standing ovation at Cannes and is already being whispered as a frontrunner for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and acting nominations for Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgård (IndieWire). One X post even declared, “And the Oscar goes to Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value 👏” (X Post), capturing the film's early buzz.
But here's the kicker: while Neon's track record at Cannes is golden (six Palme d'Or wins in a row), the journey from Croisette to Hollywood's Dolby Theatre is never straightforward. Last year's Anatomy of a Fall was passed over by France for its International Film submission, yet still managed to dominate other categories. This year, It Was Just An Accident might face similar political hurdles, while Sentimental Value seems like a safer bet—unless Norway decides to play hardball with its submission.
Let's connect some dots. This isn't Hollywood's first rodeo with politically charged films facing submission woes. In 2023, Panahi's own The Seed of the Sacred Fig was submitted by Germany, not Iran, due to his residence there (Deadline). Could history repeat itself? It's possible, but Neon's strategy will be key. They've already proven they can pivot—Anatomy of a Fall didn't need France's blessing to shine at the Oscars.
Then there's Sentimental Value, which feels like The Worst Person in the World on steroids—deeper, more emotionally resonant, and with performances that could haunt voters' dreams (in a good way). Renate Reinsve, already a Cannes favorite, and Stellan Skarsgård, a veteran with undeniable gravitas, could easily land acting nominations. But here's an insane detail: Sentimental Value isn't just a film; it's a cultural event. Its 19-minute standing ovation at Cannes was longer than some movies' runtime (GoldDerby). That's not just applause—that's a statement.
Meanwhile, The Secret Agent might be Brazil's dark horse. Wagner Moura's Best Actor win at Cannes could translate to an Oscar nomination if Neon campaigns hard enough. And let's not forget Sirat, another Neon pickup, which tied for the Jury Prize and could represent Spain in the International Film race. Neon's portfolio is diverse, but diversity doesn't always mean victory—sometimes it's just chaos in a spreadsheet.
Outside Neon's empire, Richard Linklater's Nouvelle Vague is a wild card. Snubbed by the jury but adored by critics, it's a love letter to the French New Wave, shot in black and white, and could charm Academy voters like The Artist did in 2011 (Hollywood Reporter). Jodie Foster's flawless French in Vie Privée and Jennifer Lawrence's raw turn in Die My Love are also generating buzz, though Lawrence's film might be too polarizing for mainstream Academy tastes (Mubi's behind it, so expect a fierce campaign regardless) (GoldDerby).
And then there's June Squibb in Scarlett Johansson's directorial debut, Eleanor the Great. At 95, Squibb could become the oldest-ever Best Actress nominee if voters can't resist her charm (GoldDerby). It's like watching your grandma steal the show at a family reunion—except this grandma's got an Oscar pedigree.
Other films to watch include Highest 2 Lowest, with potential nominations for Denzel Washington and Spike Lee, and Arco, a French animated feature with an eco-message that could compete in Best Animated Feature (IndieWire). Polarizing films like Ari Aster's Eddington and Wes Anderson's The Phoenician Scheme may struggle to gain traction, but their bold visions could still resonate with some voters (Vanity Fair).
So, where does this leave us? Neon's golden touch at Cannes is undeniable, but the Oscar race is anything but predictable. Sentimental Value feels like a lock for multiple nominations, while It Was Just An Accident could be Neon's next Anatomy of a Fall—a film that thrives outside traditional categories. But don't count out the underdogs like Nouvelle Vague or Die My Love. The Academy loves a good surprise, especially when it comes with a side of controversy or critical acclaim.
Genius or garbage? You decide—but one thing's for sure: this year's Cannes-to-Oscar pipeline is more of a labyrinth than a straight shot. Buckle up, because the games have just begun.
