You ever catch yourself staring at those early box office tallies, the ones that flicker across your screen like a bad dream you can’t shake? Last night, as the numbers for The Smashing Machine rolled in—$850,000 from Thursday previews across 3,345 screens, plus a smattering from last week’s IMAX runs—I felt that old familiar twinge. Not surprise, exactly. More like the quiet resignation of someone who’s seen too many sure things turn into sand. Dwayne Johnson, the guy who’s hauled franchises like Jumanji and Fast & Furious into the billions, stepping into the octagon for A24’s gritty MMA biopic. Directed by Benny Safdie, it’s got Emily Blunt as his anchor, a script that digs into Mark Kerr’s brutal rise and fall in the ’90s fight game. On paper, it hummed with prestige potential—raw, unfiltered, the kind of film that could remind us The Rock’s got layers beyond the pecs. In theaters? It’s wheezing before the first round.
Cut to today, October 3, 2025—the wide release date—and the projections have nosedived. Deadline’s initial whisper of a $20 million opening? That’s evaporating faster than sweat in a cage match. Now we’re staring at a single-digit debut, maybe $8 million domestic if the stars align (or if Swift’s Showgirl concert film doesn’t hog every last seat). Against a $50–60 million budget, that’s not just a loss; it’s a haymaker to the gut for everyone involved. Johnson’s track record? Ironclad for years, pulling $100 million-plus opens like clockwork. This? It’d be his lowest since Walking Tall back in 2004, a reminder that even granite can crack under the wrong spotlight.
And A24—Christ, what a spot they’re in. The indie darlings who’ve turned Everything Everywhere All at Once into a $140 million miracle and kept Hereditary in our nightmares for pennies. But 2025’s been a mixed bag. Materialists, Celine Song’s sharp rom-com with Dakota Johnson and Pedro Pascal, clawed its way to $101.3 million worldwide since its June bow—a bona fide hit, their third-biggest ever. The rest? Spotty. The Smashing Machine was supposed to be the counterpunch, a prestige play blending Johnson’s draw with Safdie’s nervy edge (think Uncut Gems but with headbutts). Instead, it’s landing like a body shot no one’s bracing for. Taylor Swift’s shadow looms large, sure—her film’s poised to tower with $100 million-plus this weekend, showtimes kicking off yesterday afternoon. But blame the Eras Tour redux all you want; audiences aren’t showing up for the undercard.
Peel back the marketing, and you see the tells. That trailer—moody blues and grays, Johnson’s Kerr hulking in slow-mo, veins popping like fault lines—promised a soul-baring pivot. No quips, no CGI spectacle. Just the grind, the highs of victory, the lows of heroin haze. It’s visually stark, Safdie framing fights in tight, claustrophobic shots that echo Raging Bull without the poetry. But did it connect? Early buzz from Toronto last month was solid—72% on Rotten Tomatoes, critics calling it Johnson’s most vulnerable turn since Pain & Gain. Fans, though? Crickets. Maybe it’s the shift from blockbuster bombast to indie introspection. Or maybe Johnson’s audience—those weekend warriors craving escapism—saw the poster (that stark black-and-white silhouette, Kerr’s face half-shadowed) and thought, Not tonight.
Zoom out, and this stings deeper for A24. Up next: Marty Supreme, their priciest swing yet at $70 million, dropping Christmas Day, December 25, 2025. Josh Safdie at the helm, Timothée Chalamet as the ping-pong phenom Marty Reisman—it’s got that mid-century swagger, Chalamet in period threads, a story of underdog hustle that could charm the awards circuit. But with The Smashing Machine sputtering, the pressure’s on. A24’s never chased blockbusters; they’ve thrived on cult vibes and word-of-mouth miracles. Can Chalamet’s whispery intensity pull families (or critics) on a holiday binge? It’ll need raves to break even—strong ones, the kind that turn $70 million into Moonlight magic.
Look, I’ve been ringside for Johnson’s ascent—the charisma that turned The Scorpion King into a launchpad, the savvy that kept him relevant through flops and pandemics. This feels like a pivot point, not a knockout. The Smashing Machine might find legs on streaming—HBO Max, late February or March 2026, if the pattern holds—or in the discourse, as that rare Rock role that demands rewatches. But right now? It’s a cautionary frame: even titans slip when the crowd thins.
Octagon Aftermath: What ‘The Smashing Machine’ Tells Us About the Weekend
Johnson’s Draw Dented
Dwayne’s reliable $100M-plus opens hit a wall here, signaling audiences want spectacle over subtlety this fall.
A24’s Indie Bind
With Materialists as their 2025 outlier at $101M, this $50–60M bet underscores the studio’s blockbuster blind spot.
Swift’s Screen Siege
Taylor’s Showgirl is set to dominate with nine-figure projections, leaving prestige pics like this one in the dust.
Safdie’s Stylish Risk
Benny’s raw, Uncut Gems-esque visuals shine, but the biopic’s grit may not translate to mass appeal.
Holiday Hail Mary Ahead
Marty Supreme‘s December 25 drop carries $70M weight—Chalamet’s charm versus A24’s untested scale.
Here’s where you come in: What’s your take on Johnson’s dramatic detours? Seen the trailer and felt the pull, or is this one skipping the queue? Drop your thoughts below, share if it hits home, and keep an eye on filmofilia.com for the full weekend tallies. We’ve got the fights worth watching.
