I walked into an AMC in Burbank last Tuesday. It was a ghost town. Literally.
The concessions stand was half-closed. The lobby had that eerie, echoing silence you usually find in the second act of a zombie movie, right before the jump scare. As a lifelong disciple of horror, I usually love abandoned places. But not this one. This silence smells like death.
It has been a brutal, hemorrhaging autumn for exhibitors. No blockbusters. No pulse. Just a long, cold stretch of nothing since September.
But—if the tracking gods are to be believed—the drought ends this weekend.
Universal’s Wicked: For Good is finally here, and the numbers are looking absurd. According to fresh data from Variety, the second half of the Oz saga is eyeing a weekend box office debut between $150 million and $180 million.
Let’s be real for a second. I’m a guy who usually worships at the altar of Ridley Scott and John Carpenter. I like grit. I like lasers. But right now? I am praying for the green witch. Because if this musical doesn’t work, the industry is in serious trouble.
The $180M Question: Can a Musical Kill a Superhero?
Here is the context, and it is wild. Last year, Wicked Part 1 opened to $112 million. Solid. Respectable. But For Good is tracking to blow the doors off. We are talking about a launch across 4,000+ screens.
If it hits the high end of that $180M projection, it doesn’t just succeed—it dethrones the year’s heavyweights. It puts Elphaba within striking distance of James Gunn’s Superman.
Take a look at the 2025 heavyweight division:
| Film Title | Projected/Actual Opening | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Wicked: For Good | $150M – $180M (Proj.) | The Challenger |
| A Minecraft Movie | $162M | The Current Champ |
| Lilo & Stitch | $146M | The Family Favorite |
| Superman | $125M | The Comic Book Titan |
Think about that table. We have spent the last decade drowning in capes and spandex. I have spent years analyzing the minutiae of the MCU for our Filmofilia Box Office Hub. And now? We are staring at a timeline where a Broadway adaptation might punch the Man of Steel in the jaw at the global box office report. It feels like a shift. A weird, glittery shift.
The Gamble: $300 Million and “Lukewarm” Buzz
Universal isn’t sleeping well, though. You don’t spend $300 million (combined production, and let’s not even talk about the marketing spend) without sweating.
They shot these films back-to-back in 2023. It was a logistical nightmare. It was a gamble on the level of Coppola’s Megalopolis, but with more singing. The first film grossed $758 million worldwide, which bought them some breathing room.
But… the buzz this time is weird.
I’ve been hearing whispers from the festival circuit. The reviews are “lukewarm.” Some critics are saying the split structure is dragging. Does it matter? Honestly? Probably not. Venom had terrible reviews and printed money. Mario was panned by high-brow critics and made a billion.
Plus, the international tracking is adding another layer of safety—Deadline is reporting a $70 million overseas launch. The witches aren’t just conquering America; they’re taking Europe, too.
The audience for Wicked isn’t reading Cahiers du Cinéma. They are theater kids. They are grandmothers. They are date-night couples. It’s a “four-quadrant” monster disguised in tulle.
The Exhibitor’s Desperation
Let’s zoom out. Forget the movie for a second. Look at the venue.
Exhibitors have been bleeding cash for six weeks. They need Wicked: For Good to work. They need the popcorn sales. They need the spillover effect—where you go to see Wicked, find it sold out, and buy a ticket to some indie horror flick in Auditorium 6 instead.
If this movie stalls—if it opens to, say, $90 million—it will be spun as a failure. That’s how warped the economics are right now. But if it cracks $150M? It proves that people will still leave their couch for an event.
I’m skeptical. I’m always skeptical. But I’m also desperate to see a full lobby again. So, bring on the flying monkeys. If this flops? God help us all.
The Emerald Recap: What You Need to Know
- The Magic Number: $162M. That is the Minecraft record. If Elphaba beats that, the year belongs to Oz.
- The Reality Check: Reviews are mixed. It doesn’t matter. This is fan-driven, not critic-driven.
- The Stakes: With a $300M tag, this isn’t just a movie; it’s a corporate quarterly earnings report.
- The Trend: We are watching the “Sequel Bump” in real-time—a rarity in modern cinema.
FAQ: Critical Questions on the Opening
Is splitting the movie into two parts a cinematic crime?
It feels like one. Creatively, Wicked struggles to justify the runtime of two massive films. It screams “corporate greed” rather than “narrative necessity.” However, financially? If both films cross $700M, Universal looks like geniuses, and art takes a backseat to commerce. Again.
Is a singing witch really stronger than Superman?
In 2025? Yes. Superhero fatigue is real. I say this as a comic book guy—people are tired of the formula. Wicked offers spectacle without the homework of watching 15 previous movies to understand the plot. It’s a different kind of escapism.
What happens if it flops?
If Wicked: For Good underperforms, the panic among theater owners will turn into genuine terror. The 2024/2025 slate is already thin due to the strikes. If the “sure things” stop working, we are looking at a wave of cinema closures in 2026.
Why are the fall months so empty?
It’s the hangover from 2023. The strikes stopped production for six months. That gap is hitting us now. Studios delayed their big guns to 2026, leaving October and November 2025 as a barren wasteland. Wicked is the oasis. Hopefully.
