You could practically hear the collective intake of breath from studio executives this morning. Or maybe that was just the sound of millions of theatergoers belting out show tunes in the lobby.
It’s no surprise that Wicked: For Good—the back half of Jon M. Chu’s massive Broadway adaptation—took the crown in this weekend box office report. We knew it would win. We didn’t know it would annihilate the competition with this level of ferocity. While the witches of Oz are popping champagne (or whatever glowing green elixir they drink in the Emerald City), the rest of the chart tells a darker story. Specifically for sci-fi fans. Specifically for me.
Because while Elphaba is flying high, The Running Man just hit a wall. Hard.
Let’s dig into the numbers, the heartbreak, and the sheer absurdity of a marketplace where a singing witch can outgross a Stephen King adaptation by nearly $145 million.
The Green Wave: Wicked Defies Expectations
Hopes were high. They were “defying gravity” high. (Sorry. Had to do it.)
Industry projections had Wicked: For Good tracking to match its predecessor’s $114 million opening. Instead, it blew past that benchmark, raking in a staggering $150 million domestically. That isn’t just a win; it’s a statement. It sets a new record for Broadway adaptation openings, proving that the “Part Two” curse that sometimes plagues split-narrative films didn’t apply here.
Globally? It’s even bigger. With $76 million from international markets, the film sits at a $226 million worldwide debut.
Here’s the thing that fascinates me. The critics weren’t entirely sold. The reviews have been… mixed. Rotten Tomatoes has the critics at 70%—a significant drop from the first film’s 88%. Yet, the audience doesn’t care. Not even a little bit. The Popcornmeter remains a pristine 95%, and it snagged an “A” CinemaScore. This is the definition of “critic-proof.”
It feels like 2025’s box office narrative is officially written: IP rules, spectacle sells, and if you can get people to dress up in costumes, you win. It’s currently the 14th top-grossing movie of the year, but give it a week. It’ll likely tear past Weapons ($151.6M) before I finish typing this sentence.
The Sci-Fi Stumble: The Running Man Crashes
Now, the bad news. The news that makes me want to stare out a rainy window.
The Running Man, Glen Powell’s gritty reboot of the Stephen King classic, is bleeding out. After a soft opening, it needed a miracle hold to justify its existence. It didn’t get one. The film plummeted 65% in its second frame, earning a measly $5.8 million.
That is a catastrophic drop.
We are talking about a film playing in 3,534 theaters—more screens than anything except Wicked—and it couldn’t even crack the top three. It landed at No. 4, sitting on a domestic total of $27 million. Against a reported $110 million budget (before marketing), we are looking at a financial disaster.
Why? Was it the marketing? The R-rating? Or is Glen Powell’s charisma, usually a box office superpower, not enough to overcome the general audience’s fatigue with grim dystopian futures? It’s frustrating. This film had style. It had intent. But in a weekend box office landscape dominated by escapism, nobody wanted to watch a man run for his life. They wanted to watch him fly.
The Best of the Rest: Magic, Revenge, and Brendan Fraser
Elsewhere on the chart, things are stabilizing, albeit at lower levels.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t took a 57% hit, dropping to No. 2 with $9.1 million. Domestic numbers are soft ($36.8M total), but this franchise has always been an international beast. With $146 million worldwide against a $90 million budget, the magic trick seems to be “profitability through overseas distribution.” It’s not setting the world on fire, but it’s not burning the studio down either.
Then there’s the counter-programming.
Rental Family and SISU: Road to Revenge debuted at No. 5 and No. 6 respectively, performing exactly how you’d expect films caught in the wake of a blockbuster hurricane.
Rental Family brought in $3.3 million. It’s modest, sure. But keep an eye on this one. Brendan Fraser is generating serious awards buzz, and that “A” CinemaScore suggests the people who saw it loved it. It’s the kind of movie that lingers. While everyone is rushing to Oz this weekend, I have a feeling older demographics might circle back to this human drama in December.
SISU, on the other hand? A $2.6 million open against the first film’s $3.3 million isn’t great, despite a stellar 96% Tomatometer score. It’s a brutal, visceral action flick, but it might be too niche to survive the holiday onslaught.
The Calm Before the Zoo
This upcoming week is the calm before the storm. Or rather, the quiet before the stampede.
The weekend box office is about to get crowded again. Zootopia 2 premieres on Wednesday, November 26, just in time for Thanksgiving. The tracking on that is astronomical.
For now, Universal owns the moment. Elphaba has the high ground. Glen Powell is catching his breath. And the rest of us are just watching the numbers spin, wondering if there’s room for anything that doesn’t involve a broomstick or a talking animal in 2025.
Domestic Weekend Box Office Top 10
| Rank | Title | Weekend Gross | Total Domestic Gross | LW | Theaters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wicked: For Good* | $150,000,000 | $150,000,000 | N/A | 4,115 |
| 2 | Now You See Me: Now You Don’t | $9,120,000 | $36,829,120 | 1 | 3,403 |
| 3 | Predator: Badlands | $6,250,000 | $76,284,737 | 3 | 3,100 |
| 4 | The Running Man | $5,800,000 | $27,048,000 | 2 | 3,534 |
| 5 | Rental Family* | $3,300,000 | $3,300,000 | N/A | 1,925 |
| 6 | SISU: Road to Revenge* | $2,600,000 | $2,600,000 | N/A | 2,222 |
| 7 | Regretting You | $1,520,000 | $47,258,000 | 4 | 2,709 |
| 8 | Nuremberg | $1,140,000 | $10,920,000 | 7 | 1,010 |
| 9 | Black Phone 2 | $1,000,000 | $76,389,000 | 5 | 1,227 |
| 10 | Sarah’s Oil | $771,542 | $10,352,218 | 8 | 1,347 |
5 Key Takeaways from the Ticket Booth
- Event Cinema is Undefeated: Mixed reviews mean nothing when an event feels cultural. Wicked proves that “vibes” outperform critical consensus every time.
- Budget Discipline Matters: The Running Man costing $110M makes its $27M gross a tragedy. If this had been made for $60M, we’d be having a very different conversation.
- International Markets Save Franchises: Now You See Me 3 would be a flop if based solely on US interest; global audiences are the only reason we keep getting sequels.
- The “Fraser Effect” is Real: Rental Family may have opened low, but an “A” CinemaScore suggests Brendan Fraser’s emotional connection with audiences is still potent enough to drive long legs.
- Action Needs a Hook: SISU 2 dropping below its predecessor suggests that “more of the same” isn’t enough to grow a cult audience in a crowded marketplace.
FAQ
Why is the disconnect between critics and audiences so vast for Wicked: For Good?
It usually boils down to what each group is looking for. Critics are often analyzing pacing, structural necessity (did this need to be two movies?), and adaptation choices, while audiences are there for the emotional payoff and the spectacle. When a film delivers on the “fan service” emotional beats—like the musical numbers—general audiences tend to forgive structural flaws that critics punish.
Is the R-rating the main reason The Running Man flopped?
It’s a convenient excuse, but likely not the whole truth. While R-ratings limit the teenage demographic, recent history shows that R-rated films (Deadpool, Joker) can smash records if the “must-see” factor is there. The failure here likely stems from a grim tone clashing with a holiday release window where audiences were craving escapism, not dystopian depression.
Can Rental Family actually make money with such a low opening?
Yes, specifically because of the genre and the season. Adult-skewing dramas often open soft and play long through the holidays (the “platform release” strategy, even if this was wider). If the word-of-mouth regarding the ending is as strong as the CinemaScore suggests, it could become the default “second choice” for older moviegoers through Christmas.
Does Now You See Me 3 relying on overseas gross hurt the chances of a fourth movie?
Not necessarily, but it changes the budget structure. If a studio knows a franchise is purely an international play, they might greenlight a sequel but slash the production budget to minimize risk. Domestic indifference hurts the “prestige” of a franchise, but cash is cash—if China and Europe keep buying tickets, the magicians will keep appearing.
