The 2025 Oscars: A Battle of Art, Scandal, and Legacy
Hollywood's biggest night is never just about gold statues—it's about narratives. This year, the race hinges on a Barbenheimer-level showdown: Jacques Audiard's polarizing musical Emilia Pérez (a record-breaking 14 nominations) vs. scrappy indie darlings like Brady Corbet's The Brutalist. But with scandal looming over frontrunners and overdue veterans finally getting their due, predicting winners feels like navigating a minefield in stilettos. Let's dive in.
The Major Categories: Bloodbaths and Coronations
Best Picture
Emilia Pérez entered awards season as the undisputed heavyweight, sweeping the Globes and BAFTAs. But whispers of “Oscar bait” and critiques of its portrayal of trans identity have split voters. Meanwhile, The Brutalist—a $10M indie shot on vintage 16mm—is the Everything Everywhere All At Once of 2025: a passion project with a too-good-to-ignore backstory (Corbet used AI controversially to recreate midcentury textures). Dark horse? The Substance, a body-horror thriller starring Demi Moore as a fading actress, has the “comeback narrative” the Academy adores.
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) and Sean Baker (Anora) are the safe bets, but Corbet's Brutalist campaign—pitched as “a love letter to analog filmmaking”—could sway voters craving authenticity. Don't sleep on Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), whose visceral direction turned a B-movie premise into high art.
Best Actress
Demi Moore (Golden Globe, SAG winner) vs. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here), whose Globe upset turbocharged her underdog momentum. Moore's raw, unflinching turn as a woman battling ageism is career-best work, but Torres' quiet powerhouse performance in Brazil's Oscar-nominated drama has the emotional heft that lingers.
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet's transformative Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown (he sings! He harmonica-solos!) vs. Adrien Brody's haunting, career-resurrecting role in The Brutalist. Chalamet's youth and star power scream “future of Hollywood,” but Brody—a previous winner—delivers the gravitas of a man who's waited decades for this role.
Supporting Categories
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has dominated every precursor award—this is his J.K. Simmons-in-Whiplash moment. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) is favored for Supporting Actress, but Ariana Grande's Glinda in Wicked could ride the film's surprise SAG love to an upset.
Tech Categories: Spectacle vs. Subtlety
Dune: Part Two will likely sweep visuals/sound, but The Brutalist's gritty 16mm cinematography and Nosferatu's gothic production design are strong contenders. Best Original Song is Emilia Pérez's to lose (“El Mal” is a banger), though Wicked's “Defying Gravity” snub leaves room for Sing Sing's soulful “Like a Bird.”
Final Predictions & Lingering Questions
Emilia Pérez's scandal (critiques of its trans representation) may cost it Best Picture, paving the way for The Brutalist or The Substance. Moore and Culkin feel like locks, but Actor and Director are toss-ups.
Personal Take: This year's slate proves Hollywood is torn between rewarding bold, messy ambition (Emilia Pérez) and nostalgic craftsmanship (The Brutalist). While the industry loves a redemption arc (Moore, Brody), it's also hungry for fresh voices (Fargeat, Corbet). The real winner? Audiences, who get a lineup that's anything but predictable.
Should the Academy prioritize groundbreaking films like Emilia Pérez—even if they're divisive—or play it safe with universally beloved underdogs?
