As the 2025 Oscars approach, the Best Picture race has narrowed down to two formidable contenders: Sean Baker's “Anora” and Edward Berger's “Conclave.” Both films have garnered significant attention and accolades, making this year's competition one of the most thrilling in recent memory.
“Anora” is a film that has captured the hearts of many with its poignant narrative and outstanding performances. It has been a frontrunner since the beginning of the awards season, thanks to its wins at the Producers Guild of America (PGA) and Directors Guild of America (DGA) awards. Historically, films that have won both PGA and DGA awards have a strong track record of securing the Best Picture Oscar, with 15 out of the last 17 winners following this pattern.
On the other hand, “Conclave” has emerged as a dark horse, gaining momentum with its recent wins at the BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. This political thriller, set within the Vatican, has captivated audiences with its gripping storyline and stellar performances. Despite not having a directing nomination from the Academy, “Conclave” has shown resilience, much like “Argo” did in the past.
The competition between “Anora” and “Conclave” is not just about the numbers; it's also about the narratives they represent. “Anora” tells a deeply personal story that resonates with audiences on an emotional level, while “Conclave” offers a complex exploration of power and faith. Both films have their strengths, but the question remains: which one will resonate more with the Academy's diverse voter base?
Historically, the PGA and DGA awards have been strong indicators of Oscar success. However, the SAG Awards and BAFTAs also hold significant weight, especially when they diverge from the PGA and DGA winners. The last time such a divergence occurred was in 2020, when “The Trial of the Chicago Seven” won the SAG ensemble award, but “Nomadland” took home the PGA and ultimately the Best Picture Oscar1.
As we approach the night of the Oscars, it's clear that both “Anora” and “Conclave” have compelling cases. While “Anora” seems to have the statistical edge, “Conclave” has shown remarkable resilience and appeal. The outcome will depend on how the Academy's preferential voting system plays out, which can sometimes lead to unexpected winners.
In the end, the real winner is cinema itself, as both films have contributed significantly to the art form. The question on everyone's mind is: Will “Anora” maintain its frontrunner status, or will “Conclave” pull off a stunning upset?
Do you think “Conclave” could challenge “Anora's” dominance and win Best Picture? Why or why not?
