The BAFTAs are often seen as a crystal ball for the Oscars, but this year, the waters are murkier than ever. Edward Berger's Conclave, a British production, snagged the coveted Best Picture award, leaving many to wonder: is this a sign of things to come, or just a blip on the radar? Let's break it down.
The BAFTA Win: A Triumph or a Red Herring?
Conclave's victory at the BAFTAs is undeniably impressive, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. While the film's win solidifies its place in the awards conversation, it's far from a lock for the Oscars. Adrien Brody's Best Actor win for The Brutalist over Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, and Brady Corbet's Best Director victory for the same film, suggest that the race is far from decided. If anything, this year's awards season feels like a three-way tug-of-war between Conclave, The Brutalist, and Sean Baker's Anora.
Speaking of Anora, Mikey Madison's Best Actress win at the BAFTAs adds another layer of intrigue to the Oscar race. Madison's performance has been hailed as a revelation, but she'll face stiff competition from Demi Moore (The Substance) and the dark horse, Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here). Meanwhile, Karla Sofia Gascón's absence from the BAFTA ceremony—despite her film Emilia Perez winning Best Film Not in English—raises questions about her Oscar chances. Will she even show up on March 2?
The Supporting Players: Zoe Saldana and Jacques Audiard Shine
Zoe Saldana's Supporting Actress win for Emilia Perez feels like a foregone conclusion for the Oscars. Her performance has been universally praised, and unless there's a major upset, she's poised to take home the gold. Jacques Audiard's heartfelt shoutout to Gascón during his acceptance speech was a touching moment, reminding us that cinema is as much about the people behind the scenes as it is about the stars.
The Bigger Picture: What Does This Mean for the Oscars?
The BAFTAs have thrown a wrench into the Oscar race, but let's not forget: Anora just won the PGA and DGA awards, two of the most reliable predictors of Best Picture success. While Conclave's BAFTA win is significant, it's not the final word. The Oscars are a different beast, with their own set of voters, biases, and preferences. This year's race is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
Personal Impressions: A Year of Surprises
This awards season has been a rollercoaster, and Conclave's BAFTA win is just the latest twist. While I admire Berger's craftsmanship, I can't help but feel that Anora is the more deserving film. Its raw emotional power and bold storytelling make it a standout in a crowded field. That said, Conclave's win is a reminder that sometimes, the underdog can surprise us all.
Do you think Conclave has what it takes to win the Oscar, or is Anora still the frontrunner? Let us know in the comments!
