The numbers don't make sense. Welcome to Hollywood in 2025.
Think about this: less than a month out from the July 11 release of James Gunn's Superman—supposedly DC's savior—and the only thing anyone agrees on is that nobody has a clue. THR says “industry opinion is sharply divided.” Honestly? That's polite. What we have is trained analysts hedging between a tepid $90M opening (yikes) and a euphoric $175M (dream on). That isn't tracking. That's cold fear in a glossy Excel sheet.
And you know what? They're not wrong to panic. The DC brand doesn't have wounds anymore—it's just scar tissue. Every time another “can't miss” caped disaster tanks (RIP, The Flash), audience trust erodes, atom by atom, until there's nothing left but snark and memes. Why would the average moviegoer believe this (another Superman, really?) will be the one to turn things around? At this point, “brand loyalty” is a punchline. Warner Bros. could put out Superman Sings Country Road and get the same reaction: Prove it.
Look, ticket presales? Middling. “Fandango crashed” for a couple hours, but that's more PR bandage than bona fide phenomenon. In-house, I've heard there's disappointment over advance numbers—especially given how hard WB is pushing this as a “fresh start.” Enough disappointment that if things don't spike mid-campaign, we could see an opening under $100M. (The fact that sounds apocalyptic tells you everything about superhero inflation.)
But this is where the $175M optimists cling: reviews. That's it. That's the game. If critics and early audiences rally—if they really believe Gunn has alchemized decades of baggage into gold—you'll see real momentum, maybe even that “event” status. But if word comes in “meh,” or if Shazam flashbacks take hold, it's lights out. No heat, no hype.
Why? DC isn't sitting atop the mountain like Marvel back in the days of Infinity War. This is all or nothing. And it's not just about one film—Gunn is dragging an entire rebooted universe up the hill. If he can't get butts in seats this summer, every “universe” plan falls apart, fast.
And summer's release calendar? Brutal. Audiences have options. Marvel dropped the ball with The Marvels, but WB hasn't exactly stuck the landing either. There are new faces, old wounds, and the faint smell of panic in the air.
Quick side-note: I remember the wild certainty that surrounded Batman v Superman. $150M+ opening “locked.” Then the dust settled, and everyone realized: projections are just stories we tell ourselves to feel in control. Same story, different hero.
So here's the only real projection worth making—Superman lives or dies on word of mouth. Gunn's riding shotgun with the critics, hoping they'll frame the narrative that, yes, the dark days are over. If they don't…well, there's always 2030.
